Ecomentary.com provides this archive of postings dating from 2011 dating back to 2001, as a resource. Due to the nature of dated material on the internet, we do not guarantee that hyperlinks are current.

April 22, 2004

The China Card While the news from Iraq seems as if it couldn’t be worse, a broadening political and economic understanding appears to be evolving between the U.S. and China. In the past week, some rather startling developments emerged illustrating the cooperative nature of relations between the two “Pacific States” following the recent visit by Vice President Cheney to the Middle Kingdom. Shades of Nixon 1972? Is history being repeated or just rhyming? more…

March 06, 2004

Reinventing Central Banking In some ways, economics, particularly economic policy making, has much in common with medicine. This is particularly true when it comes to the art of central banking. Since one of the oldest rules in medicine is for the physician to ?do no harm,? one ought not to be surprised that this is also a suitable maxim for the economic policy maker. more…

September 04, 2002

The U.S. and Japan: the real similarities The Bubbles and Busts in Japan and the U.S. have frequently been compared as if the Japanese experience offers
insights into appropriate policy for the U.S. Some similarities do exist because Booms often arise from conditions of cheap capital access and result in extreme bouts of overinvestment in capacity. Both economies suffered from cheap capital and some similarities can be seen by reviewing the resulting excesses that need to be corrected. Despite the huge differences in the policy apparatus of the two countries, it is interesting to see that capital exit in both countries is being impeded by the regulatory authorities. One can only hope the U.S. will recognize the problems that can cause by a more careful consideration of the Japanese experience more…

February 06, 2002

Capital Exit: Japan and the Enron Debacle The Enron affair points out some interesting comparisons between the end of the Japanese Bubble and the U.S. bubble. In some ways, we have ‘been there, done that.’ Enron is causing pain, but not collapse. Japan suggests it is a question of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’ more…

January 13, 2002

As the economy was bottoming out, 9-11 occurred creating downleg of a V
within a U. Further policy response, sharp markdowns and attractive
financing put the Consumer back in the game and inventory rebuilding must
now occur. But without stabilized consumption, QI2002 could be a headfake
and a double dip could lie along the road to recovery. The fundamentals have
not shifted and the KEY to recovery is the CONSUMER…which has been our
view for many weeks. If there is an “event” out there that could upset the
recovery, it could be a Japanese financial accident. more…

April 05, 2001

Responding to the BoJ Offer: The BoJ is still waiting for the Government’s response, although there is now evidence of an emergency policy package that the LDP is preparing in conjunction with various Government officials. more…